The Mayan long count calendar is a 5,125 year calendar that turned over in 2012 to start a new 5,125 year cycle. But instead of turning over on December 21, the common perception, it happened on September 17. This is because the calendar was initiated 105 days sooner in 3114 BCE than commonly believed. Instead of an August 11, 3114 BCE start date the Maya began the calendar on April 28, 3114 BCE. Some Maya consider the calendar cycle that just ended to be the fourth "world" or age. We have just started the fifth age. The third age started on November 1, 8208 BCE.
There are two key pieces of evidence that point toward an April 28 start date: the Mars retrograde long count date of the 8208 BCE third age start and the astronomical characteristics of April 28, 3114 BCE that match those of the start of the third age in 8208 BCE. After discussing those two pieces of evidence I will test the April 28, 3114 BCE start date by looking at planetary alignments for ruler accession dates, assuming that start date.
The Maya moved to Isla Tigre, Honduras in about 8600 BCE. It was the key place for the development of the earliest Mayan culture - where they learned cultivation, where they tamed animals, and where they began counting days with the 260-day tzolk'in and tracking time with the Mars retrograde long-count calendar. As they made preparations to leave the island, a spectacular alignment of planets began forming in the early morning eastern sky over more than four weeks in late September and October 8208 BCE.
First the planets lined up vertically in a near perfect line, bottom to top, of Mercury, Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, and Venus. By October 28 Jupiter, Mars, and Venus were nearing each other both vertically and horizontally and began a five-day triple-star event. Saturn was just above and to the north of the three. By October 31 the moon joined the conjunction to the south. Mercury was halfway down the sky, a messenger to the sun. The next day was considered the start of the new age, the third world.
During the planetary alignment, the Mars retrograde calendar was set at 3 Tojmar (Muluk), as it had been since November 28, 8246 BCE, 38 years earlier. It finally moved in 8199 BCE, but jumped two spaces. When it jumped two spaces the previous placement was considered to be placed on both 3 Tojmar and the next sign 2 K'anir (Lamat). There are two examples in the Popol Vuh where this is true.
The triple star of 8208 BCE was the event that caused the day sign K'anir ("yellow star") to be named. Tojmar day already had a name. The day signs were named for events that happened during the Mars retrograde marker rather than for events that happened on that day in the tzolk'in itself.
The Mars calendar needed to be aligned at 3 Tojmar - 2 K'anir in 8208 BCE, rather than some other numbers of Tojmar and Kanir, because that is the only alignment that allows 7 Chamer (Cimi) (Death) to occur within the 800 years before the triple star. Seven Chamer indicates the approximate time when the Mayan ancestors arrived to El Salvador and first met and were captured by the Xibalba. The Popol Vuh clearly associates 7 Chamer with Xibalba. There was a good chance that the Mayan ancestors came from Taltal, Chile, a site which was abandoned in about 8500 BCE. An alignment of 3 Tojmar for November 28, 8246 BCE, gives a Mars retrograde period for 7 Chamer of 8688 to 8641 BCE.
It is possible that November 28, 8246 BCE was 2 K'anir instead of 3 Tojmar. Then the 8208 BCE triple star would have been considered jointly 2 K'anir - 1 Ch'i' (Manik'). The biggest evidence against this is a poem in the Popol Vuh that provides the line: xtoj xk'anil, which means "movement into Tojmar, movement into K'anir." This references the movement of the Mars retrograde calendar through two signs - Tojmar and K'anir - during the time that the Maya were developing gunpowder around 7700 BCE. If November 28, 8246, is 2 K'anir, then Tojmar and K'anir would not move together from 7692 BCE to 7677 BCE, whereas if November 28, 8246 BCE, is 3 Tojmar then Tojmar and K'anir do move together from 7692 BCE to 7677 BCE. Furthermore this would mean that twice in a row - from 8246 to 8199 BCE and from 7692 to 7677 BCE - Tojmar and K'anir would move together in the Mars retrograde calendar, giving more prominence to the poem line xtoj xk'anil.
The most accepted correlation of the long count calendar with the western calendar is the Goodman-Martinez-Thompson (GMT) correlation of 584283. Assuming that November 28, 8246 BCE was 3 Tojmar, there are three principal options for lining up the long-count calendar and tzolk'in with the western calendar:
- GMT -365, correlation constant 583918
- GMT -105, correlation constant 584178
- GMT +155, correlation constant 584438
The first option has some appeal being one year off. But the middle option, correlation constant 584178, is the closest to the GMT correlation. More importantly, correlation constant 584178 provides a start date of the long-count calendar - the beginning of the fourth age - of April 28, 3114 BCE, a day with astronomical features that come close to matching those of November 1, 8208 BCE, the beginning of the third age.
These three events were equivalent 45 minutes before sunrise on both April 28, 3114 BCE and November 1, 8208:
- Venus and Jupiter were closely aligned with exact conjunction the day before;
- The moon was a few degrees past the Venus and Jupiter conjunction with exact conjunction the day before;
- Mercury was visible about half-way between the Venus and Jupiter conjunction and the horizon, a messenger to the sun.
These three events may happen only once every 200 years. While a Venus - Jupiter conjunction happens nearly once per year, it is rarer for them to be aligned horizontally at the same time. Add in a moon conjunction and Mercury in the same early morning sky and it is rare event. The Maya would have recognized the importance of a sky that matched the story of the 8208 BCE sky. From the Popol Vuh we know that the oral history of the 8208 BCE sky was kept alive.
The Maya had already figured out the math of the new long-count calendar and they were waiting for a sign to start the new calendar. The Venus-Jupiter-Moon-Mercury alignment of late April 3114 BCE was the sign from the spirit world to start the long-count calendar. April 28 was 4 Ahchuk, the Observer, in the tzolk'in (Ajaw in Yucatec). Thus, the correlation constant of 584178 is correct.
In order to determine the end date of the fourth age that just ended, the date when the long-count calendar turned over, one further adjustment of the tzolk'in needs to be made due to the ten-day skip in October 1582 CE. The adjustment needs to be made because many scholars and online Mayan calendars do not take account of the skipped ten days. Taking account of the ten-day skip, means that after 1582 CE the correct correlation for the tzolk'in and the long count calendar is GMT -95, correlation constant 584188.
The April 28, 3114 BCE start date of the Mayan long-count calendar would mean that the calendar turned over to 0.0.0.0.0 on September 17, 2012, not December 21, 2012.
A Study to Test out the Hypothesis
I set up a study to test out the veracity of the 584178 correlation constant. The hypothesis is that the Maya would have used planetary alignments in their selection of a date used for the accession of a new ruler. The alignment that I used is the most obvious - a conjunction between any of the five visible planets, the sun, and the moon (the "luminaries").
I found 64 accession dates from 15 sites, including 16 from Palenque and 8 each from Tikal, Copan, and Yaxchilan. Most of the accession dates are from The Ancient Maya, 5th Ed, by Robert J. Sharer. Because of the low number of accession dates I could not create a random sample but rather used the entire sample. I would invite additional accession dates from readers. I then created a random sample of 100 dates with a random number generator of Julian dates between January 1, 320 CE and December 31, 780 CE (Gregorian), which is about range of dates from the accession sample.
I checked conjunctions between the seven luminaries: sun, moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn. An 8 degree orb was used, consistent in both the accession sample and the comparison group. I checked both the early morning sky and the evening sky - midnight to midnight in Mesoamerica (using today's time zones). The following measures where used:
- total conjunctions
- whether each conjunction was present on the date
- for each luminary, whether it was involved in at least one conjunction on the date
- for each luminary, total number of conjunctions on each date
Results
The Maya did use luminary conjunctions as they were choosing ruler accession dates: for the 64 accession dates there was an average of 1.97 conjunctions per date compared to 1.40 for the comparison group (significance at 99% certainty using a two-tailed t-test). Saturn was involved in a conjunction in 41% of the accession dates compared to 21% of the comparison dates (significance at 99% certainty using a chi sq test). It was unusual for Mayan accession dates not to have at least one conjunction: only 9% had no conjunctions compared to 22% of the comparison group.
Total and Average Number of Conjunctions by Luminary, Mayan Accession Dates and Comparison Group, with T-test P-value
| Luminary |
Acces- |
Aver- age per Date |
Compar- ison Group Conjunc- tions n=100 |
Aver- age per Date |
P-value in T-test |
| Sun | 46 | 0.72 |
55 | 0.55 | 0.159 |
| Moon | 31 |
0.48 |
38 |
0.38 | 0.282 |
| Mercury | 49 |
0.77 |
54 | 0.54 | 0.064 * |
| Venus | 42 |
0.66 |
49 |
0.49 |
0.162 |
| Mars | 36 |
0.56 |
35 |
0.35 |
0.076 * |
| Jupiter | 17 |
0.27 |
27 |
0.27 |
0.959 |
| Saturn | 31 |
0.48 |
22 | 0.22 |
0.006 *** |
* Significant at 90% level.
** Significant at 95% level.
*** Significant at 99% level.
The Moon-Saturn conjunction was the most common Saturn conjunction, used in 14% of accession dates compared to 4% of the comparison group (significance at 95% certainty using a chi sq test). Since the moon conjuncts Saturn every 29 days, this would have been the easiest way to ensure Saturn's involvement in an accession. Two other conjunctions were significantly more common among the accession date sample than the comparison group sample at the 90% certainty level: Venus-Mars (16% to 7%) and Mercury-Saturn (9% to 3%).
Total and Average Number of Specific Luminary Conjunction Pairs, Mayan Accession Dates and Comparison Group, with Chi square test P-value, for P < 0.20
| Luminary Pair Conjunc- tion |
Acces- |
Per- cent of Dates with Conjunc- tion |
Compar- ison Group Conjunc- tions n=100 |
Per- cent of Dates with Conjunc- tion |
P-value in Chi Sq test |
| Moon-Saturn | 9 | 14% |
4 |
4% |
0.020 ** |
| Venus-Mars | 10 | 16% | 7 |
7% |
0.077 * |
| Mercury-Saturn | 6 | 9% |
3 |
3% |
0.080 * |
| Mars-Saturn | 4 | 6% |
2 |
2% |
0.157 |
| Moon-Jupiter | 3 | 5% |
11 |
11% |
0.158 |
| Sun-Moon | 5 | 8% |
3 |
3% |
0.163 |
** Significant at 95% level.
One surprising result is the complete lack of Jupiter conjunctions in the 16 ruler accession dates at Palenque. This compares with 31% of the non-Palenque accession dates having a Jupiter conjunction and 22% of the comparison group with a Jupiter conjunction. Compared to the comparison group, the lack of Jupiter conjunctions at Palenque has a p value of 0.000, which makes it extremely unlikely to be a random event. The Palenque accessions take place over 369 years so it was a practice consistently followed for a long time.
Conclusions:
- The Maya timed ruler accession days to maximize luminary conjunctions, especially Saturn.
- The Maya were using a long-count that began on April 28, 3114 BCE and ended on September 17, 2012 CE, with a correlation Mayan-European of 584178 (-105 days). It is with this correlation that the above significant findings take place.
- The Mayan 4th age begun on April 28, 3114 BCE had a planetary alignment similar to that of the beginning of the 3rd age on November 1, 8208 BCE: very tight Venus-Jupiter conjunction in the morning sky with the moon just past and Mercury half-way to the sun.
- The Mars retrograde calendar is a reality. The 584178 correlation gives a Mars retrograde date of 3 Tojmar - 2 K'anir at the time of the November 1, 8208 BCE planetary alignment. This alignment gave name to the day sign K'anir (yellow star). This also places the Popol Vuh-referenced Mars retrograde date of 7 Chamer (death) at about 8700 BCE, the time that the Mayan ancestors first met their deathly enemies, the Xibalban hunters.
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